Shots on target betting explained
"Player to have 1+ shot on target" is one of the most popular bets in a football bet builder — and one of the easiest to misunderstand. Here's what counts, how it settles, and what our data from more than 5,600 matches says about who lands them.
What counts as a shot on target
A shot on target is an attempt that would have gone in if nobody had stopped it. In practice that means:
- Goals count — including headers and penalties.
- Shots saved by the goalkeeper count.
- Shots blocked on the line by the last defender count, because they were going in.
- Shots that hit the post or bar do not count, unless they go in.
- Shots blocked by an outfield player who isn't the last line of defence do not count.
Data suppliers make the call on borderline cases — a deflection, a scramble — and their decision is what settles your bet.
How the bets are settled
Bookmakers settle on an official data supplier, usually named in their rules, and normally on 90 minutes plus stoppage time — extra time and penalty shoot-outs usually don't count. If a player comes on as a substitute, the bet normally stands. If he takes no part at all, rules vary, especially inside a bet builder, so check your bookmaker's. Waiting for the confirmed line-ups removes most of the risk.
Who lands shots on target
Across the matches in our database, a team averages about 4.4 shots on target per match. Most of them come from a handful of players: centre-forwards first, then attacking midfielders and wingers. Defenders and holding midfielders rarely land one in a typical game, which is why they almost never make our slips.
The best way to see it is club by club. Our shots on target stats for every Premier League and Championship club list each player's recent record and our model's chance of 1+ shot on target, home and away.
What really moves the chance
Minutes
The single biggest factor. A striker who plays 90 minutes has far more chances to land one than a striker who's subbed at 60. That's why we only count games of an hour or more, and only ever pick confirmed starters.
Recent form — taken with a pinch of salt
Ten games is a small sample. A midfielder who's landed one in seven of his last ten might be in the form of his life or might have been lucky. Our model "steadies" each player's rate towards the usual rate for his position, so a hot streak counts, but not at face value. As of mid-October 2026, West Ham's Jarrod Bowen had landed a shot on target in all ten of his last ten games — but our model gives him about 69% at home, not 100%, because ten from ten is partly luck.
The opponent
Some teams concede far more shots on target than others. We adjust every player's chance by how many shots on target his opponent has been conceding — but only believe half of the difference, and cap the adjustment both ways, because defensive records are noisy too.
Home or away
In our data, home sides produce about 10% more shots on target than average and away sides about 10% fewer — a real but modest effect.
Why "1+" is the line we use
One or more shots on target is the most common line and the one where data tells you the most. For a top striker it might be a 70%+ chance; for an attacking midfielder, 40–50%. Lines of 2+ are much harder to land and far more dependent on how one game goes, which makes them a poor fit for a three-leg slip.
Get the picks before kick-off
A new feature: up to three data-picked bet builder slips a day, with fair odds, free in our Telegram channel 15–40 minutes before kick-off. Not guaranteed — subscribers get every slip.
📱 Join the Free ChannelQuestions
Does a shot that hits the post count as a shot on target?
No. A shot that hits the woodwork only counts as on target if it goes in. If it bounces out, it's a shot off target.
Do penalties count as shots on target?
Yes. A penalty that's scored or saved counts as a shot on target. A penalty that misses the goal or hits the woodwork and stays out doesn't.
Do shots in extra time count?
Usually not. Player shot markets are normally settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Check your bookmaker's rules for cup ties.
Keep reading
Bet builders are a new feature and are not guaranteed: unlike our arbs, most slips lose, and our record shows it. Bet only what you can afford to lose. 18+. BeGambleAware.org