How to pick shots on target players for a bet builder
Most people pick shots-on-target legs by reputation: the big names, the in-form striker everyone's talking about. Our model picks them by evidence. Here's the checklist it follows, which you can use yourself.
1. Start with the team sheet
The most important fact about any shots-on-target leg is whether the player starts. A substitute who comes on for twenty minutes has a fraction of a starter's chance, and a player who doesn't play at all can void your slip. Team sheets are published about an hour before kick-off. Build your bet builder after that, never before. Our tips are only ever posted once both line-ups are confirmed.
2. Look at the last ten games of 60+ minutes
Season totals mislead because they mix full games with cameos. Count only games where the player was on the pitch for an hour or more, and look at the last ten of those. In how many did he land at least one shot on target? Seven or eight out of ten is strong; five out of ten is ordinary.
3. Don't take a hot streak at face value
Ten games is a small sample, and small samples flatter. As of mid-October 2026, West Ham's Jarrod Bowen had landed a shot on target in ten of his last ten games. Our model doesn't call that a certainty: it rates him at about 69% at home, because it steadies every player towards the usual rate for his position. Manchester City's Erling Haaland, with nine from ten and more than two shots on target per 90 minutes, comes out at about 76%, the highest of any player we track. The steadying stops a lucky run from dominating the slip, and our backtest found it made the probabilities noticeably more honest.
4. Position still matters
Centre-forwards land shots on target most often, then attacking midfielders and wingers. A defender who's scored twice from corners can look tempting, but over ten games his rate is usually low and lumpy. Our model leaves goalkeepers out entirely and rarely picks defenders.
5. Check the opponent
Some sides concede twice as many shots on target as others. Look at how many the opponent has given up per match over their last ten games. We adjust every player's chance for it, but only by half the difference, and within limits, because defensive records are noisy too.
6. Home or away
In our data home teams produce about 10% more shots on target than average and away teams about 10% fewer. It's a nudge, not a deal-breaker: the same striker is a little more likely to land one at home.
7. Decide: one team or both?
Three attackers from the same team tend to land, or miss, together: when a side dominates, all its forwards get shots away. That makes a one-team slip a bit more likely to come in than multiplying its legs suggests, and a bookmaker should price it a little shorter for the same reason. Splitting your legs across both teams spreads the risk differently. Neither is wrong; just know which you're doing.
8. Price it before you bet it
Once you've got three legs and a chance for each, work out the slip's fair odds and compare your bookmaker's price. If the bookmaker offers less than fair, you're paying its margin. Our bet builder calculator does the sum.
The shortcut
This is exactly what our model does for every match on the card, the moment the team sheets land. Each player's numbers are on our club stats pages, and the finished slips, with fair odds, go to subscribers — with up to three a day free in our Telegram channel. See the latest slips →
Get the picks before kick-off
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Which players are best for shots on target bets?
Starting centre-forwards who play the full game, have landed a shot on target in most of their last ten games of an hour or more, and face a side that concedes plenty. Our club pages rank every Premier League and Championship player by our model's chance.
How many shots on target legs should I put in a bet builder?
Fewer is usually better. Every extra leg adds margin and lowers the chance of the whole slip landing. We use three: enough for a decent price, few enough that a typical slip still has around a one-in-five chance.
Keep reading
Bet builders are a new feature and are not guaranteed: unlike our arbs, most slips lose, and our record shows it. Bet only what you can afford to lose. 18+. BeGambleAware.org