Bet builder tips, picked by data — with a fair price on every slip
Every match day, our model waits for the confirmed team sheets, then picks the three starters most likely to have a shot on target in each of the day's best matches. Each slip comes with the odds it's really worth — so you can see at a glance whether your bookmaker's price is any good. It's a new feature, and like any bet builder it isn't guaranteed: most slips lose. What you get is honest probabilities and a fair price, not a sure thing.
Record since 03/10/2026: 7 of 45 slips landed all three legs; 80 of 135 individual picks landed (59%, against 58% predicted). Full slips have landed a little less often than predicted (7/45 against about 21%), which is normal luck over 45 slips. Every slip →
The latest slips
Why these are different
Confirmed line-ups only
Picks go out after the team sheets, so you never back a player who's on the bench.
Ten games of evidence
Each player's last ten appearances of an hour or more, adjusted for the opponent and for home or away.
Honest probabilities
Players we rate around 58% have landed 59% of the time across 135 picks.
A fair price on every slip
The odds where the slip breaks even. Beat it and you have value; fall short and you're paying the bookie's margin.
Every result published
Wins and losses, posted in the channel and logged here — nothing deleted, nothing cherry-picked.
Built by an industry insider
Twenty years inside the bookmaking industry, now pricing bet builders the way a bookmaker would.
How to use the fair price
Take the Leeds v Manchester United slip above: the model gave all three legs a 17% chance of landing together, which makes its fair odds 5.79.
- If your bookmaker offers 6.66 for the same three players, you're getting about 15% more than the bet is worth — that's value.
- If it offers 4.63, you're accepting 20% less than fair — that's the bookmaker's margin, and over time it costs you.
Bet builder prices differ a lot between bookmakers, so check two or three before you bet. Our free bet builder calculator does the sum for any slip.
How a pick is made
- Wait for the line-ups. We start checking 40 minutes before kick-off and only use confirmed starters.
- Pull each starter's recent record. Their last ten games of 60+ minutes, reaching into last season if needed.
- Turn it into a chance. Shots on target per 90 minutes, steadied towards their position's average so a hot streak isn't taken at face value, then adjusted for the opponent and venue.
- Pick the three most likely. Each leg must pass our guardrails: six games of history, landing in at least half of them, and a 45%+ chance.
- Price the slip. Team-mates' legs tend to land together, so the slip is priced as a whole, not by multiplying three numbers.
The full method, and the backtest on 1,145 matches →
Record by competition
| Competition | Slips landed | Predicted |
|---|---|---|
| Nations League | 3/11 | 24% |
| Premier League | 1/11 | 18% |
| Championship | 1/9 | 15% |
| Champions League | 2/9 | 25% |
| Europa League | 0/5 | 19% |
Small numbers per competition — read them as a log, not a ranking.
Shots on target stats by club
The same numbers our model uses, for every Premier League and Championship club: who's most likely to land a shot on target, home and away. Browse all 44 clubs →
Get the picks before kick-off
Up to three slips a day go free into our Telegram channel 15–40 minutes before kick-off, with each result after the final whistle. Subscribers get every slip.
📱 Join the Free ChannelQuestions
Are the bet builder tips free?
Up to three a day are. The best slip from each kick-off time goes into our free Telegram channel, up to three a day, with its result. Subscribers get every slip — alongside every arb and value alert — in the paid channel.
When are the bet builder tips posted?
Between 40 and 15 minutes before kick-off, as soon as both teams' line-ups are confirmed. We never guess who starts, so tips can't go out earlier.
Which competitions do you cover?
The Premier League, the Championship, the FA Cup and League Cup, the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, and international matches such as the Nations League and World Cup qualifiers.
What does "fair odds" mean?
The odds at which the slip breaks even over time, worked out from our model's chance of all three legs landing. If your bookmaker offers more than the fair odds, the bet is good value by our numbers. If it offers less, you're paying the bookmaker's margin.
Do you guarantee winners?
No. Bet builders are a new feature and they're not guaranteed — unlike our arbs, which lock in a profit whatever happens. A typical slip has roughly a one-in-five chance of landing, so most of them lose — and we publish every one, win or lose. What we do promise is honest probabilities: the players we rate at around 58% have landed 59% of the time.
Which bookmaker should I use?
Whichever offers the biggest price for the same three players — bet builder prices vary a lot between bookmakers, so compare two or three before you bet and check them against our fair odds.
Bet builders are a new feature and are not guaranteed: unlike our arbs, most slips lose, and our record shows it. Bet only what you can afford to lose. 18+. BeGambleAware.org