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Bet builder results: every slip we've posted

Updated 18 Oct 2026 • 45 slips • Download as CSV

Nothing removed, nothing cherry-picked: this is the full log of bet builder slips since the model went live on 03/10/2026, settled automatically after the final whistle.

45
slips posted & settled
59%
players landed (80/135)
58%
what we predicted
7
full slips landed
5.23
average fair odds

Are the probabilities honest?

This is the test that matters. If the model says a player has a 60% chance, players like that should land about 60% of the time. Here's every individual pick so far, grouped by the chance we gave it:

Our chancePicksPredictedLanded
Under 55%5050%48%
55–60%4057%60%
60–65%1862%72%
65%+2772%70%

Across all 135 picks we predicted 58% and 59% landed. Full slips need all three, and 7 of 45 made it, against about 21% predicted — a little unlucky, and within normal variation for 45 slips. 22 of the losing slips missed by a single player.

Every slip

DateCompetitionMatchPlayers (✓ landed)Fair oddsResult
18/10Premier LeagueNottingham Forest v ArsenalK. Havertz ✗, B. Saka ✗, D. Ndoye ✗5.660/3
18/10Premier LeagueBrighton v Crystal PalaceC. Kostoulas ✓, P. Groß ✗, Y. Ayari ✓7.302/3
18/10Premier LeagueLeeds v Manchester UnitedB. Mbeumo ✓, D. Calvert-Lewin ✓, Bruno Fernandes ✓5.79Landed
17/10Premier LeagueNewcastle v Aston VillaN. Jackson ✓, M. Fernandez-Pardo ✗, J. Manzambi ✓4.222/3
17/10ChampionshipDerby v Stoke CityC. Morris ✓, S. Szmodics ✓, L. Cissé ✗6.562/3
17/10Premier LeagueBrentford v LiverpoolVíctor Muñoz ✓, A. Isak ✓, Thiago ✗6.172/3
17/10Premier LeagueManchester City v IpswichE. Haaland ✓, J. Doku ✗, J. Enciso ✗5.571/3
17/10ChampionshipMiddlesbrough v CardiffK. Joseph ✓, A. Cozier-Duberry ✓, J. Moylan ✓5.71Landed
16/10ChampionshipBurnley v WolvesFer López ✓, L. Ramazani ✗, J. Vardy ✓8.402/3
15/10Europa League1899 Hoffenheim v BeşiktaşOh Hyeon-Gyu ✓, A. Hložek ✗, A. Kramarić ✗5.181/3
15/10Europa LeagueBenfica v CelticD. Lukebakio ✗, K. Høgh ✓, C. Durán ✓4.792/3
15/10Europa LeagueRennes v OFIE. Lepaul ✓, Mousa Tamari ✗, L. Blas ✓4.442/3
15/10Europa LeagueUnion St. Gilloise v Real SociedadD. Olaru ✓, L. Sučić ✗, Mikel Oyarzabal ✗6.981/3
15/10Europa LeagueLyon v Crystal PalaceE. Nuamah ✓, I. Sarr ✗, C. Tolisso ✓5.342/3
14/10Champions LeagueManchester City v Paris Saint GermainE. Haaland ✓, O. Dembélé ✓, D. Doué ✓4.16Landed
14/10Champions LeagueAston Villa v FenerbahçeN. Jackson ✓, V. Muriqi ✓, J. Manzambi ✓3.85Landed
14/10Champions LeagueAS Roma v Real MadridKylian Mbappé ✓, D. Malen ✓, P. Dybala ✗3.402/3
14/10ChampionshipPortsmouth v Sheffield UtdA. Segecic ✓, P. Bamford ✗, T. Cannon ✓6.432/3
14/10Champions LeagueFeyenoord v ComoN. Paz ✗, A. Hadj-Moussa ✓, Assane Diao ✓7.072/3
13/10Champions LeagueRB Leipzig v PSV EindhovenS. Mijnans ✓, Rômulo ✗, A. Nusa ✓4.262/3
13/10Champions LeagueInter v Club Brugge KVLautaro Martínez ✓, M. Thuram ✗, N. Tresoldi ✓3.372/3
13/10Champions LeagueGalatasaray v BarcelonaV. Osimhen ✗, Lamine Yamal ✗, Fermín ✓2.801/3
13/10ChampionshipWolves v BoltonFer López ✓, T. Bair ✗, M. Mane ✗6.861/3
13/10ChampionshipCardiff v WatfordJ. Moylan ✓, Cian Ashford ✓, O. Maamma ✗6.842/3
13/10Champions LeagueLens v Sporting CPF. Thauvin ✓, L. Suárez ✓, N. Irankunda ✗4.452/3
13/10Champions LeagueSabah FA v Slavia PrahaJ. Mickels ✓, U. Rahmonaliyev ✓, V. Simić ✗4.292/3
11/10Premier LeagueCrystal Palace v Nottingham ForestJ. Strand Larsen ✓, D. Ndoye ✓, M. Gibbs-White ✗6.512/3
10/10Premier LeagueManchester United v TottenhamMatheus Cunha ✗, Bruno Fernandes ✗, B. Mbeumo ✓6.301/3
10/10ChampionshipWatford v BurnleyZ. Amdouni ✓, L. Ramazani ✗, L. Kjerrumgaard ✗5.961/3
10/10Premier LeagueChelsea v BournemouthC. Palmer ✗, M. Tavernier ✗, M. Rogers ✓5.661/3
10/10Premier LeagueAston Villa v BrentfordN. Jackson ✓, J. Manzambi ✓, Thiago ✗4.372/3
10/10ChampionshipWest Brom v BirminghamJ. Morgan ✗, A. Priske ✓, J. Stansfield ✓7.212/3
10/10Premier LeagueArsenal v LeedsK. Havertz ✓, B. Saka ✓, N. Madueke ✗4.652/3
09/10ChampionshipWest Ham v QPRV. Castellanos ✗, J. Bowen ✓, P. Smyth ✗5.371/3
06/10Nations LeagueCroatia v SpainLamine Yamal ✗, I. Matanović ✓, Álex Baena ✗4.831/3
06/10Nations LeagueEngland v CzechiaH. Kane ✓, J. Bellingham ✓, M. Rogers ✗3.082/3
05/10Nations LeagueNorthern Ireland v GeorgiaI. Price ✓, Patrick Kelly ✗, K. Kvaratskhelia ✗6.361/3
05/10Nations LeagueItaly v TürkiyeG. Scamacca ✓, A. Vergara ✗, D. Maldini ✗3.911/3
05/10Nations LeagueFrance v BelgiumE. Lepaul ✓, O. Dembélé ✗, B. Barcola ✓2.462/3
04/10Nations LeagueRep. Of Ireland v IsraelT. Parrott ✓, J. Moylan ✗, O. Gloukh ✗5.481/3
04/10Nations LeaguePortugal v NorwayE. Haaland ✗, Francisco Conceição ✗, Bruno Fernandes ✓4.031/3
04/10Nations LeagueNetherlands v SerbiaM. Meerdink ✗, N. Lang ✗, T. Reijnders ✓3.981/3
03/10Nations LeagueSpain v CzechiaLamine Yamal ✓, Roberto Fernández ✓, A. Hložek ✓5.01Landed
03/10Nations LeagueSwitzerland v SloveniaZ. Amdouni ✓, D. Ndoye ✓, J. Manzambi ✓4.52Landed
03/10Nations LeagueCroatia v EnglandH. Kane ✓, J. Bellingham ✓, B. Saka ✓5.56Landed

Two things we're watching

Slip shapeLandedPredicted
All three from one team2/1124%
Split across both teams5/3420%

Team-mates tend to land (or miss) together — when a side dominates, all its attackers get shots away. Our model allows for that, and our backtest suggested one-team slips land slightly more often than split ones. We'll know whether that holds once there are a few hundred slips.

Most-picked playersPickedLanded
J. Manzambi44
B. Saka32
D. Ndoye32
Lamine Yamal31
E. Haaland32
Bruno Fernandes32
J. Moylan32
N. Jackson33

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