Value bet calculator
Compare the bookmaker's price with the fair price — from a sharp bookmaker, an exchange or your own estimate — to see your edge and what the bet is worth on average.
Where fair odds come from
The most reliable fair price is a sharp bookmaker's or a betting exchange's, with the margin removed — their prices are moved by the best-informed money. When a soft UK bookmaker offers more than that, you have a value bet. Our scanner checks every price it sees against the sharp line and sends value bets to subscribers; between 14 and 17 October it found 130, at an average edge of 5.94%.
Value is a long game. A 6% edge doesn't mean you win 6% more often — it means that over hundreds of bets, your returns should come out about 6% ahead of your stakes. How SureBetUK finds value →
Questions
What is a value bet?
A bet whose odds are higher than the outcome's true chance justifies. If an outcome is a 33% chance (fair odds 3.00) and you get 3.40, you have about a 13% edge.
How do you calculate expected value?
Divide the bookmaker's odds by the fair odds and subtract 1: that's your edge per pound staked. Multiply by your stake to get the expected profit per bet.
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